With the Korean peninsula heating up, what is the likelihood of war? (2024)

Technically, the two Koreas have been at war for more than 70 years, with periodic flare ups not uncommon. The recent escalation is nonetheless significant. Here is why.

Historical context

The Korean peninsula had been under Japanese control since 1910. After Japan’s surrender in 1945, which brought World War II to a close, the peninsula was split into two. The Soviet and the Chinese communists propped up Democratic People’s Republic of Korea in the North, while the Americans supported the creation of the Republic of Korea in the South.

In 1950, North Korean forces under founder Kil Il Sung invaded the South triggering the three-year long Korean War. Despite making major initial gains, US troops helped the South fight back. Eventually, neither side secured a decisive victory, and an armistice was signed in 1953. This led to the creation of the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), which divided the peninsula into half, but no permanent peace treaty was signed.

Since then, both Korean nations have dreamt of “reunification”, by force if necessary. But the likely human and material cost of an all out war has meant that the status quo has, by and large, prevailed. Since the 1970s, both sides held negotiations towards achieving a “peaceful reunification”, with agreements in 2000, 2007, and 2018 significant in this regard. However, very little tangible progress has been made.

Meanwhile, North Korea has also pursued the development of nuclear weapons, inviting heavy sanctions from the UN Security Council, the US, and its allies.

Genesis of current tensions

In 2019, then US President Donald Trump and North Korea leader Kim Jong Un met in Hanoi, Vietnam. This was their second meeting, after Trump in 2018 became the first sitting US president to meet the North Korean leader. Many had hoped that the summit would see US and North Korea make headway regarding denuclearisation and consequent ease of sanctions.

However, the summit ended abruptly with not even a joint statement signed. Robert Carlin and Siegfried Hecker wrote in an article in 38 North, a US-based publication specialising in policy and technical analysis of North Korea, that this was “a traumatic loss of face for Kim”, which pushed DPRK to completely end its attempts to normalise relations with the US (and consequently the South). The country restarted its nuclear programme with gusto.

Tensions between North and South Korea have been escalating since then. In January 2024, Kim notably announced a shift in DPRK’s outlook towards South Korea. Renouncing further attempts at reunification, Kim said that the South was now to be viewed as the “primary foe and invariable principal enemy”.

In July, North Korea announced that it had further fortified its southern border. All year, it has been sending helium balloons carrying trash across the southern border, in response to South Korean activists sending “propaganda-laden” balloons to the North. By blowing up the Gyeongui and Donghae roads, which connect North and South Korea, DPRK formalled ended all ties with the South and laid to rest any hope for peaceful reunification.

War impending?

Carlin and Hecker described the current situation as “more dangerous than it has been at any time since early June 1950”. Notably, they wrote that North Korea’s increasing closeness to Russia and China has meant that it is not wary of the “ironclad deterrence” presented by South Korea’s alliance with the US.

“There is a belief, entirely understandable, that more and more frequent symbols of our intent to retaliate will keep the North at bay, as will our oft-stated conviction that if the North attacks, the counterattack will totally destroy the North Korean regime. Yet, in the current situation, clinging to those beliefs may be fatal,” they wrote following Kim’s January declaration.

However, this does not necessarily mean that a war is impending. “I doubt that the situation would escalate to the level of war. North Korea is exploiting military confrontation to strengthen internal cohesion,” Professor Kang Dong-wan, who teaches political science and diplomacy at Dong-a University in Busan, told the BBC.

“Whenever tensions rise, North Korea emphasises external threats to boost loyalty to the regime,” he said.